Analysis

Vacancies have continued to fall quarter-over-quarter and are at their lowest since Q3 of 2019. Vacancies decreased in nearly all submarkets and across most center types. Demand continues to stay strong, however, without any new construction, tenants may be locked into their spaces for the long term.

There has been a significant amount of positive net absorption over the past seven quarters, and the county’s vacancy rate is now back in line with pre-pandemic levels. Analysts have found a stabilization in the retail market, but this is also due to a decrease in the retail real estate inventory over the past four years.

The San Diego retail market recorded just $98.7 million in sales volume across 14 centers and 203,380 SF in Q4 2022 compared to $312.7 million in Q3 2022 (-68% QOQ) and $258.9 million in Q4 2021 (-62% YOY). The average price was $447 per SF in Q4 2022 compared to $297 in Q4 2021 (+51% YOY). In 2022, private investors comprised 70% of buyers (vs. 64% in 2021) and 80% of sellers (vs. 69% in 2021), according to Real Capital Analytics.

Sources: CBRE, Cushman & Wakefield, Voit